Emmy Predictions 2025: ‘Adolescence,’ ‘Severance’ and ‘The Studio’ Among Early Frontrunners In 19 Categories

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Emmys Commentary (Updated: March 20, 2025): The studios and networks behind this year’s standout television series are gearing up for a highly competitive Emmy season. As the eligibility window for the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards (July 1, 2024 – May 31, 2025) moves forward, a stacked lineup of contenders is emerging across drama, comedy and limited series categories. Leading the charge are Apple TV+, HBO/Max, Netflix and Hulu, each delivering high-profile projects featuring A-list talent.
The drama categories will have plenty of prestige picks to choose from.

Apple TV+ is making a strong play in the drama category with several major contenders, including the highly regarded second season of “Severance,” starring Adam Scott, and the legal thriller “Presumed Innocent,” headlined by Jake Gyllenhaal. Last year’s nominee, “Slow Horses,” featuring Gary Oldman, also remains a strong player as it enters its fourth season.

HBO/Max could continue to dominate with the third season of “The White Lotus,” which shifts its setting and introduces new cast members Walton Goggins and Carrie Coon. The second season of “The Last of Us,” starring Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey, is expected to be a major contender as it tries to mirror its 20 nomination tally from its first season. Additionally, Noah Wyle leads “The Pitt,” a medical drama that could make waves. At the same time, the awards darling of the fall season, “The Penguin,” starring Colin Farrell, is expected to solidify its standing in the Emmy race.

Netflix also offers a diverse set of contenders, including the second season of “The Diplomat,” starring Keri Russell, and the continuation of the dystopian series “Squid Game” with Lee Jae. Other notable possibilities could include “Black Doves,” starring Keira Knightley, and the upcoming Judy Blume adaptation of “Forever.”

Other platforms are also pushing compelling narratives. Hulu’s freshman series Paradise, starring Emmy winners Sterling K. Brown and Julianne Nicholson, is poised to make an impact alongside the final season of The Handmaid’s Tale with Elisabeth Moss. The latter could offer a compelling swan song for the series, which made history as the first streaming show to win the top Emmy category.

Paramount+ enters the race with returning seasons of “Yellowjackets” and “Lioness,” in addition to another Taylor Sheridan drama, “Landman.” Meanwhile, Disney+ aims for a return nomination with “Andor,” alongside its Marvel property “Daredevil: Born Again,” starring Charlie Cox and Vincent D’Onofrio.

AMC also hopes to garner recognition for its thriller series, “Dark Wind,” entering its third year.

On the comedy front, reigning Emmys champion “Hacks” from HBO/Max will return with Jean Smart leading the charge, while Peacock’s “Poker Face,” starring Natasha Lyonne, eyes a returning nom for its beloved star. After its historic Emmy showing last year, FX’s “The Bear” remains a top contender after winning the most statuettes for a comedy series ever.

Apple TV+ is pinning its hopes on “The Studio,” co-created by and starring Seth Rogen, which could be a juggernaut across multiple categories. The show features an ensemble with Catherine O’Hara and guest appearances by auteurs like Martin Scorsese and Sarah Polley (which could be major spoilers in the guest acting races). This may be too great to ignore.

Netflix will field multiple competitors, including “A Man on the Inside” with Ted Danson, “Nobody Wants This” with Adam Brody and Kristen Bell, and the upcoming “The Four Seasons,” which unites Steve Carell and Tina Fey.

Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” coming off a surprise SAG ensemble win, remains a strong player with its star-studded trio of Steve Martin, Martin Short and Selena Gomez.

ABC’s “Abbott Elementary,” led by Quinta Brunson, continues to be a network standout. With its fourth season airing, supporting star Janelle James could be on the verge of a long-overdue Emmy win.

Meanwhile, NBC’s medical workplace comedy “St. Denis Medical” could carve out a spot in the race for Wendi McLendon-Covey. And who can forget the 50th season of the sketch comedy series “Saturday Night Live,” which will undoubtedly battle “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” once again in the decimated scripted variety series category? Nonetheless, some of this year’s dynamic cast members, like Bowen Yang and Ego Nwodim, might find room to squeeze into the supporting races.

Other contenders include Disney+’s “Agatha All Along,” starring Kathryn Hahn, Peacock’s “Laid,” featuring Stephanie Hsu, and Paramount+’s “Colin From Accounts,” starring Patrick Brammall and Harriet Dyer.
While the limited or anthology series category has been crowded recently, this year’s lineup appears less saturated.

Netflix’s critically acclaimed miniseries “Adolescence,” which premiered earlier this month, is already being labeled as one of the leading frontrunners. Co-creator, star Stephen Graham and breakout actor Owen Cooper are expected to be forces in their respective acting categories (once official campaign submissions are confirmed). The streamer also has “Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story,” featuring Cooper Koch and Nicholas Alexander Chavez, as well as “Zero Day,” starring Robert De Niro.

HBO/Max’s “The Penguin,” with Colin Farrell as the iconic DC villain, is already one of the most talked-about limited series of the season. Its star has swept all the awards shows thus far.

FX presents “Dying for Sex,” led by Emmy winner Michelle Williams, and “Say Nothing,” a gripping thriller starring Lola Petticrew. The network also has the fall 2024 anthology story “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez,” focusing on the rise and fall of the former NFL player, with Josh Andrés Rivera in the lead role.

Peacock will enter the race with “Long Bright River,” starring Amanda Seyfried, while Apple TV+ offers the psychological thriller “Lady in the Lake,” featuring Natalie Portman.

Beyond traditional networks and streamers, YouTube content creators are hoping to make an impact in the Emmy race. “Hot Ones,” hosted by Sean Evans, will submit in the outstanding talk series category, while “Good Mythical Morning,” hosted by Rhett & Link, competes in the outstanding short-form comedy, drama, or variety series category. Michelle Khare’s “Challenge Accepted: I Trained Like a Black Belt for 90 Days” is vying for a nomination in the hosted nonfiction series category, her first time submitting.

The first round of Emmy predictions is below. Individual category rankings will be rolled out in batches over the coming weeks.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)