Grammy Predictions, From Beyoncé to Kendrick Lamar: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

Will win: “Cowboy Carter”

Could win: “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”; “Hit Me Hard and Soft”

Of course, this is Bey’s year to get this prize… right? You could have lost a lot of money in the past making that same assumption. But we really do think album of the year is hers for the taking, even if her quasi-country collection didn’t finish the year with the full steam it had back in the spring. True, saying “she’s overdue” hasn’t done it for her before. But combine that ongoing sentiment with the fact that “Cowboy Carter” really was a provocative musical and cultural statement — and that her Christmas Day halftime appearance recharged her zeitgeist battery — and the odds of her finally getting across the finish line seem stronger than anyone else’s. Still, don’t rule out a re-crowning of Eilish, who has become practically the Grammys’ poster girl, nor the outside chance of a Roan freshman sweep. Swift had the biggest seller of the year, but after she picked up album of the year for a historic fourth time last year, the Academy consensus is leaning toward giving someone else a shot. – Chris Willman

Will win: “Not Like Us”

Could win: “Birds of a Feather”; “Good Luck, Babe!”

Hip-hop has sadly been a non-starter in this category, but a win has happened before for Childish Gambino’s “This Is America” five years ago, so there’s precedent (barely). If the genre is ever going to prevail here again — still a big if! — it will be for a single as culturally ubiquitous as Lamar’s. Huge numbers of voters who feel a significant stake in rap being represented at the Grammys can and will coalesce behind it… even if some Academy members who are less invested in that representation might be docking it for being a diss track. A progressive mindset would also favor Roan’s song since it would become the first single with an overt LGBTQ+ theme to win record of the year, not to mention it just having that great, dog-whistle hook. Then again, how could you rule out recurring Grammy queen Eilish for a sing-along that has commercially surpassed all of her previous award winners to become her biggest single to date? It’s easy to see this one going any of those three ways. Or five ways, since Beyoncé and Carpenter are the other candidates that can’t completely be counted out.

Will win: “Birds of a Feather”

Could win: “Good Luck, Babe!”; “Not Like Us”

Although “Birds of a Feather” could win for record of the year, we feel more strongly about its chances for song of the year. Eilish and brother/collaborator Finneas have talked about how they spent the better part of a year writing and perfecting the hit, which the songwriting community will admire, especially seeing how the toil paid off in a commercial blockbuster. But Lamar and Roan again stand as strong alternatives. And Carpenter’s irresistible entry could be a sleeper. Note that Carpenter took the rare step of submitting and being nominated for two different numbers for record of the year and song of the year, splitting the difference between a couple of equally well-liked smashes; it would undoubtedly be educational for artists considering that gambit in the future if she picked up a win for one of those choices.

Will win: Chappell Roan

Could win: No, really, it’s going to be Chappell Roan

Finally, there is a category that can safely be called well before the ceremony begins. Roan is the kind of phenomenal talent that any Grammy voter can safely imagine still being part of the lead races 20 years from now — a prodigious singing and writing talent whose knack for constant virality is simply icing on the cake. This is a rare instance in which all eight best new artist nominees are credible candidates, and in another year, it would be easy to see almost any of the others taking it, except maybe the cult group Khruangbin. But this isn’t another year. Thank you, Midwest Princess, for making at least one choice simple.

Will Win: Amy Allen

Nigro should arguably be up here, too, but the rules don’t allow it. Raye could make it through, but it might be as a consolation prize for not being more rewarded as an artist, as she is the only candidate who is nominated as a performer as well as writer, even though the Academy seemed to discourage that double-dipping with its nominal qualification rules. In the end, voters will probably honor the spirit of the category by going for a more “pure” songwriter, and Allen is at the top of that list.

Will Win: Daniel Nigro

If you have just two principal producing/co-writing clients in 2025 and they are Chappell Roan and Olivia Rodrigo, you are leaving everyone else in the happy-just-to-be-nominated dust.

Will Win: “Birds of a Feather” — Billie Eilish

As much as this could turn out to be Bey’s year in many ways, “Bodyguard” is not one of the most talked-about tracks from “Cowboy Carter,” and her ability to submit different songs in different genre categories probably won’t lead to any across-the-board sweep. The odds more strongly favor Carpenter or Roan for their legit pop smashes. Still, Eilish’s status as a perennial Grammy favorite gives a tailwind to what was just legitimately one of the universal favorite songs of 2024.

Will Win: Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars

The phrase “too big to fail” doesn’t always apply at the Grammys, but it might be for two artists who together managed a blockbuster global success… and who could make up here for missing out on a nomination for record of the year.

Will Win: Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”

Eilish just seems likely to run the board on most of her nominations.

Will Win: Charli XCX

With so much heavyweight competition from more established Grammy favorites in other categories, Charli XCX is not likely to get the massive wins that would be commensurate with how ubiquitous she was in 2024. But her entries in the dance categories allow voters to give her a couple of no-brainer wins.

Will Win: Ariana Grande

During her big Oscar run for “Wicked,” and considering her snub in the general categories, Grande should be able to bring at least one statue home with her, and she’s the odds-on favorite if Charli XCX and Billie Eilish don’t spoil the party.

Will Win: Fred Again and Baby Keem

Will Win: Norah Jones

A former Grammy queen should claim an easy win here, although someday, if not now, Lake Street Dive will get its due.

Will Win: St. Vincent

Will Win: The Beatles

“Now and Then” prompts almost equal levels of love and suspicion, but given the lack of any other obvious front-runner, the chance to give The Beatles what would apparently be their final Grammy ever is hard to pass up for many voters.

Will Win: Jack White, “No Name”

White had the most acclaimed album of this bunch, but that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily the most obvious or only pick, as there were as many people who actually liked the Pearl Jam or Stones album as might just pick one or the other of them out of habit.

Will Win: Kendrick Lamar

It’s not really a contest here, with Lamar (and not GloRilla) the 1,000-pound gorilla in this category, unless the voters have caught Doechii fever more than we know, which would at least be a fun outside possibility to consider.

Will Win: “Spaghettii” – Beyoncé Featuring Linda Martell & Shaboozey

A chance to award two of the biggest hitmakers of the year and give Linda Martell her first Grammy, however incidental her spoken-word contribution is to the track?

Will Win: Doechii

It is a fine consolation prize if, as expected, Doechii misses out on BNA.

Will Win: Kendrick Lamar

Of course he is.

Beyoncé could win here as well as in the country categories, but “Ya Ya” didn’t have the cultural force of the actual singles off her album. Here’s betting the beloved Ferrell, or possibly Welch & Rawlings, will sneak ahead if the Americana community actually dominates the bloc that chooses to vote in this category.

Will Win: Sierra Ferrell

Without full Beyoncé and Gillian Welch albums shuttled off to other genre categories, Ferrell has an even clearer path here, barring Burnett’s long history of winning over the voting sentiment in this category.

Will Win: The Nelons

The Nelons might have had this one even without the tragic plane crash that took their lives.

Will Win: Kali Uchis

Obviously, Anitta and Shakira are powerhouses here. However, if they split the more commercially minded vote, branch members unhappy that the acclaimed Uchis hasn’t gotten support in the big four categories may rally behind her.

Will Win: Bad Bunny

Will Win: Dave Chappelle

The Academy seems immune to criticism over perennially giving the comedy award to highly controversial figures.

Will Win: Jimmy Carter

It may seem irreverent to the recently deceased president to say he’s part of a smackdown here. Still, sentiment for him may outweigh even the allure of hearing Barbra’s and Dolly’s buttery voices for hours on end (and diva devotee votes may cancel each other out).

Will Win: John Legend

John Legend and Sufjan Stevens… together again? Hard to overcome that combo.

Will Win: “Hell’s Kitchen”

Without a clear favorite, a chance to award ongoing Grammy favorite Alicia Keys will almost certainly be unavoidable, especially with most of these other shows already having closed on Broadway.

Will Win: “Twisters: The Album”

Having enlisted virtually every country star in the universe makes it easy for any Nashville chapter member participating in this category to make their pick, and it was the first successful film compilation soundtrack in quite a while.

Will Win: “Challengers”

“Challengers” got shut out for an Oscar nod, but the electronic score was so popular that it may outweigh even the work of as big a favorite as Zimmer.

Will Win: “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”

Batiste’s past status as a top Grammy winner should push him over here, along with the song’s personal/sentimental value that stood prominently in his documentary. However, another nod to the success of the “Twisters” soundtrack is far from impossible.

Will Win: Kendrick Lamar

Lamar seems likely to keep sweeping the board where he can, although this might be Swift’s best chance to prevail this year.

Will Win: “American Symphony”

The Oscars overlooked the compelling story of Batiste dealing with his wife’s cancer. Still, if enough Grammy voters saw it—and possibly not as many did as saw the “We Are the World” documentary—then “American Symphony” will be the easy choice here.

Will Win: Samara Joy

Another established Grammy favorite is back, and it won’t matter that Christmas albums don’t usually prevail.

Will Win: André 3000

At last, some justice for the OutKast member’s “flute album,”… which did actually pick up respectable reviews, despite the jokes.

Will Win: “A Rock Somewhere”

Collier is another Grammy favorite who is likely to get his love here, since Album of the Year will remain out of his grasp.

Will Win: Tems

Tems is the obvious crossover favorite here.

Will Win: Mind Games

Name value aside, Sean really did go all out in giving one of his dad’s lesser-remembered albums its contemporary due, with a high level of ingenuity in the ultra-deluxe package.

Will Win: “i/o”

Gabriel was at the forefront of truly thinking about sound and offering alternate versions of his album, the immersive one not being the least of them.

Will Win: André 3000

If only because there is no award for Best Song Title.

Will Win: Beyoncé

Now here’s a tough call. Bey is easy to pick if all the voters get to vote in every category—which they don’t. Even so, we believe a lot of the Academy’s Nashville voters, who tend to be more progressive than the average Music Row denizen, will want to reward her for coming into the field rather than resent her for being a carpetbagger. Then again, Stapleton almost can’t lose in these categories historically, and all five candidates are strong contenders.

Will Win: Chris Stapleton

Will Win: Shaboozey

Will Win: Beyoncé Featuring Miley Cyrus

Will Win: Muni Long

Will Win: SZA

SZA only has a song in the Grammy conversation this year and not a full album, and there are several chances to reward her for it while she is slightly off-cycle as a superstar.

Will Win: SZA

Will Win: Fontaines D.C.

Will Win: St. Vincent

There’s a reason St. Vincent continues to be a favorite of Grammy producers for telecast performances as well as still having her cred among the intelligentsia. No one else here has that broad an appeal.