What Anonymous Oscar Ballots Ultimately Show: From ‘Fernanda Torres Is a Goddess’ to Voters Mistakingly Believing Ralph Fiennes Won Before

Anonymous Oscar ballots have become a contentious topic among film pundits. Some consider them a “red herring,” arguing they distract from a predetermined outcome. There’s some truth to that.

I conducted my first batch of casual chats with Oscar voters in 2012, sparked by a conversation with an industry professional at a New York event. It was illuminating to hear what they selected and why. Beyond these direct discussions, stories circulated about how voting once operated. A friend of mine still recalls going to college with someone whose mother worked as a secretary for a now-deceased, beloved writer-director. Every year, he would hand her his ballot to fill out and submit on his behalf.

Those days are long gone.

The Academy’s voting process is now entirely digital. With two-factor authentication in place, it remains difficult, if not impossible, for someone to delegate their ballot to another person. The Academy does not release official voter turnout numbers. This year, 9,945 Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) members were eligible to vote. Industry experts estimate that participation in organizations of this size can range from 30% to 70%. That’s a significant gap; we don’t know where the final numbers will land.

This year, Variety spoke with 84 individual AMPAS members, representing a range of demographics, including age, industry standing and nationality.

Oscar predicting, like forecasting in sports or politics, is an imperfect science. As pundits, we accept that we’ll never be 100% correct — and so should everyone else. Before major guild nominations are announced, predictions involve a mix of data analysis and industry insight. While some view it as guesswork, we use informed judgment and industry conversations to assess the race’s trajectory. That’s the reality of Oscar punditry.

Sometimes, we’re right — i.e., calling “CODA” to win best picture following the SAG Awards. Other times, we’re off — i.e., Ridley Scott could win best director for “Gladiator II.” But our careers don’t hinge on perfection. We’re OK with being wrong, and you should, too.

While I don’t have access to all 9,945 ballots, I, like my colleagues, rely on conversations with industry professionals to determine what may or may not happen on Oscars Sunday. This goes beyond what can be gleaned from pure statistics.

I love Oscar stats and use them as a North Star to navigate nomination and ceremony predictions. However, direct conversations with voters reveal the “X-factors” that statistics alone can’t capture. That’s how trade pundits correctly predicted Penélope Cruz’s nomination for “Parallel Mothers” despite her absence from major precursors. It’s also how I recognized Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” had considerable support for a best picture nomination.

This isn’t about “bragging rights” — it’s about offering a personal reminder to follow the No. 1 rule in Oscar predicting, a lesson I learned from Johnny Alba, founder of The Oscar Igloo, where I landed my first writing gig: “It’s not about who we want to win. It’s about who will win.”

As I step off the soapbox, here are a few more anonymous Oscar ballots and key takeaways from these discussions.

“Anora” vs. “Conclave” (and a little bit of “The Brutalist”)

In best picture, the ranked-choice voting system can dramatically shape the outcome. If this were a single-choice category, like the other 22 Oscar races, I’d be tempted to predict a victory for “The Brutalist.” The film has strong passion within the Academy but suffers when not ranked No. 1. Voters who don’t have it at the top tend to place it No. 5 or lower, at least from my findings.

Interestingly, “Anora” often appears alongside “The Brutalist” when ranked No. 2 or 3.

Predicting the Academy’s top prize is often a numbers game (yes, journalists doing math). The preferential ballot means a film’s best chance at winning depends on which movies get eliminated first — those with the fewest No. 1 votes. My estimation: “Dune: Part Two,” “The Substance” and “Nickel Boys.”

The big question: Which film benefits most from these eliminated votes? Which films are No. 2 on those ballots? I see a lot of “Wicked,” “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown” and “Anora.”

Voter #6: “I watch everything! I hate it when people don’t take this job seriously. It’s our responsibility to watch all of it… When you don’t, you miss masterpieces like ‘The Substance’ and ‘Emilia Pérez.’”

Best Picture: “The Substance” (1); “Anora” (2); “Emilia Pérez” (3); “Conclave” (4); “Nickel Boys” (5); “Wicked” (6); “A Complete Unknown” (7); “The Brutalist” (8); “Dune: Part Two” (9); “I’m Still Here” (10)
Actor: Timothée Chalamet
Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Costume Design: “Wicked”
Director: Coralie Fargeat
Documentary Feature: “Porcelain War”
Documentary Short: “Incident”
Film Editing: “Wicked”
International Feature: “Emilia Pérez”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “Nosferatu”
Original Score: “The Brutalist”
Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Production Design: “Wicked”
Animated Short: “Magic Candies”
Live Action Short: “I Am Not a Robot”
Sound: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects: “Better Man”
Adapted Screenplay: “Sing Sing”
Original Screenplay: “The Substance”

What are the “upsets” that are brewing?

This may be a “spread the love” year.

An outcome where six different films win two Oscars each — and no film dominates — seems possible. The ceiling for any movie could be three wins, and the best picture winner might not be the night’s most-awarded film.

A surprising trend: Monica Barbaro and Isabella Rossellini appear on many ballots, mainly where “Anora” and “The Brutalist” perform well. Historically, actors who sweep the four major televised awards (Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA) rarely lose the Oscar. Only Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”) has done so.

I didn’t come across nearly as many Ariana Grande and Felicity Jones voters as I suspected I would. Does that mean they’re not out there? Of course not. But we have to remember musicals are always “tougher” sells for cinephiles. If you’re not a “musical person,” you only have Barbaro, Jones and Rossellini to choose from. And even if you love the genre, some went for Grande; others chose Saldaña. This could hint at a jaw-dropping moment coming on Sunday or be unrelated noise.

The other categories seem closer than suspected: adapted screenplay (“Nickel Boys” vs. “Conclave”), director (Sean Baker vs. Brady Corbet), cinematography (“The Brutalist” vs. “Nosferatu”) and documentary feature (“No Other Land” vs. “Porcelain War” vs. “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”).

Voter #7: “This was all about ‘Wicked’ and Zoe. I hope they both win.”
Best Picture: “Wicked”
Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Supporting Actor: Edward Norton
Actress: Cynthia Erivo
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Cinematography: “Maria”
Costume Design: “Wicked”
Director: Coralie Fargeat
Documentary Feature: “No Other Land”
Documentary Short: Abstain
Film Editing: “Wicked”
International Feature: “I’m Still Here”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Substance”
Original Score: “Wicked”
Original Song: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Production Design: “Dune: Part Two”
Animated Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Sound: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay: “The Substance”

So who’s winning best actress?

Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Demi Moore (“The Substance”) were seemingly in a ping-pong match on a stretch of about 12 voters, and it looked like it was those two at the top and nothing else. When the dust settled, there was a considerable amount of support for Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”). The latter’s film has been the hardest to track this season, mainly due to more than a third of the voters I spoke to sharing that they had only watched the film in the last few days before turning in their ballots. I believe the support of Torres will ultimately bring the movie to a victory in the international feature race, a first for Brazil. One artisan’s branch voter says, “I never heard of this movie until it was nominated for best picture, and, oh my God… That movie was incredible, and she is a goddess. I voted for it in all three categories.”

Madison and Torres are most potent among the international membership, while Erivo and Moore are most prominent among voters based stateside. Moore’s film is the most polarizing, and what I found most interesting is we underestimated how much of a barrier horror movies are for entry for cinephiles (the same goes for musicals). That’s what makes the race much closer than it otherwise would be. Regarding “Emilia Perez,” the “backlash” didn’t change as many minds as people may have thought. However, I found many that weren’t on board with the film in the first place, which is surprising considering 13 nominations. One awards strategist shares a theory: “The voter turnout for the nomination phase is very low. It shows it doesn’t take much to get a nomination.”

However, one voter was defiant about sticking with their vote for Karla Sofía Gascón. “I don’t care what people do during their private time… I voted for her, even though she won’t win.”

Voter #8: “It’s about the movies. Nothing else should matter.”
Best Picture: “Anora” (1); “Emilia Pérez” (2); “Nickel Boys” (3)
Actor: Sebastian Stan
Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong
Actress: Karla Sofía Gascón
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña
Animated Feature: “Flow”
Cinematography: “Maria”
Costume Design: “Conclave”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Documentary Feature: “Black Box Diaries”
Documentary Short: “Incident”
Film Editing: “Emilia Pérez”
International Feature: “Emilia Pérez”
Makeup and Hairstyling: Abstain
Original Score: “The Brutalist”
Original Song: “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
Production Design: “Nosferatu”
Animated Short: “Magic Candies”
Live Action Short: “Anuja”
Sound: “Dune: Part Two”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”

Is Timmy or Adrien winning?

One of the most significant moments of the SAG Awards was when Timothée Chalamet won the “A Complete Unknown” lead actor prize, making him the youngest actor ever to win the category. The victory disrupted the winning streak of current Oscar frontrunner Adrien Brody from “The Brutalist.” And the question is, does Chalamet make history?

An interesting conundrum is, I didn’t find as many Chalamet voters that would suggest he’s brewing for an upset, but voters would tell me, “I know a lot of people who voted for him.”

Some suggested that those voting for “Dune: Part Two” in multiple categories are checking Chalamet’s name off. But I didn’t find as many that would convince me he’s about to pull it off. What I did see was a decent amount of Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and especially Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). I’d go as far as to consider that, if Brody were to lose, it would happen in favor of Fiennes. One voter cites the British actor’s stunning career for his support: “He is one of the best actors who’s never stopped being great.”

Surprisingly, two separate voters who didn’t vote for Fiennes said they did not vote for him because “he won before.” They both believed he won an Oscar for “Schindler’s List” (1993), which he didn’t, as he lost to Tommy Lee Jones for “The Fugitive.”

“Oh shit!” one chuckled after being corrected. Coincidentally, they voted for Brody, who actually won an Oscar for “The Pianist” (2002). As you can tell, sometimes these things tend not to make much sense.

Voter #9: “’Anora’ is the only film that’s a real movie… Ariana Grande is a delight.”
Best Picture: “Anora” (1); “Dune: Part Two” (2); “Wicked” (3); “Conclave” (4); “The Brutalist” (5)
Actor: Adrien Brody
Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov
Actress: Mikey Madison
Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande
Animated Feature: “Flow”
Director: Sean Baker
Documentary Feature: “No Other Land”
Film Editing: “Anora”
International Feature: “I’m Still Here”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”

Some other findings?

Oscar voters can — and do — change their minds.

This awards season remains highly unpredictable, but if current trends hold, we’re looking at a best picture race where “Anora” or “Conclave” are the safest bets.

The international feature, documentary and short categories have the most “abstains” of all categories, which is disappointing.

In the end, we can only make educated guesses and let the ballots speak for themselves. In a breakdown of some demographics, “Conclave” is strongest with older voters and artisan branch members. However, it’s “Anora” that does hit on almost all cylinders. It’s popular with younger Americans and strong with the Actors Branch, the largest of the Academy.

Variety’s final Oscar predictions will be revealed on Wednesday.

Voter #10: “I dug most of the nominees… It was between Isabella and Monica for supporting actress. I loved the narrative around Isabella, and she was so funny in her short time. I don’t know how Cynthia isn’t a lock.”
Best Picture: “Anora”
Actor: Ralph Fiennes
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Actress: Cynthia Erivo
Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
Costume Design: “Wicked”
Director: Brady Corbet
Documentary Feature: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Documentary Short: “Incident”
Film Editing: “Anora”
International Feature: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked”
Original Score: “The Wild Robot”
Original Song: “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Production Design: “The Brutalist”
Animated Short: “Yuck!”
Live Action Short: “I’m Not a Robot”
Sound: “Dune: Part Two”
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”