ブリスベンテスト引き分け後、インドのWTC最終シナリオはどう変わる？ BGT 1-1?

チームインドが WTC 決勝に出場するために何をする必要があるかを見てみましょう。 BGTは現在1-1。

BGT: The third Test between India and Australia at the Gabba concluded in a rain-hit draw, leaving fans pondering India’s path to the World Test Championship (WTC) Final. The result not only levelled the ongoing series at 1-1 but also introduced several qualification permutations as the teams looked to secure their spot in the final. Here’s a detailed breakdown.

Rain-curtailed Gabba Test

The Gabba Test was marred by persistent rain and interruptions, ultimately ending in a stalemate. Australia, batting first, posted an imposing 445, thanks to contributions from Travis Head and Steve Smith, who both hit fabulous hundreds. In reply, India managed 260, with the lower order offering some resistance but falling short of expectations. Jasprit Bumrah (3/18) led India’s spirited bowling effort in the second innings as Australia declared at 89/7, setting India a challenging target of 275 in the final session.

However, India’s chase was cut short as rain and bad light intervened, forcing an early tea and eventually ending the match. The captains agreed to call off the game, leaving both sides to share points from the encounter. The draw at the Gabba altered the dynamics of the WTC points table slightly.

Updated WTC Points Table

Rank	Team	M	W	L	D	NR	Points	Win %
1	South Africa	10	6	3	1	0	76	63.33
2	Australia	15	9	4	2	10	106	58.89
3	India	17	9	6	2	2	114	55.88
4	New Zealand	14	7	7	0	3	81	48.21
5	Sri Lanka	11	5	6	0	0	60	45.45
6	England	22	11	10	1	22	114	43.18
7	Pakistan	10	4	6	0	8	40	33.33
8	Bangladesh	12	4	8	0	3	45	31.25
9	West Indies	11	2	7	2	0	32	24.24

After IND vs AUS 3rd BGT Test

WTC Final scenarios for India’s qualification

India’s qualification depends on both their results and outcomes of other series in the WTC cycle. Here are the detailed scenarios:

Scenario 1: India Wins Both Remaining Tests

If India wins the final two Tests against Australia and clinches the series 3-1, they qualify for the WTC Final outright. This result ensures India achieves the necessary win percentage to secure their spot, regardless of other outcomes.

Scenario 2: India Wins the Series 2-1

If India wins the series 2-1, they will qualify if:
1. Sri Lanka beats Australia 1-0 in their two-match series.
2. The Sri Lanka-Australia series ends in a 1-1 draw.
This scenario depends on Australia failing to dominate their remaining fixtures.

Scenario 3: Series Draws at 2-2

If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends in a 2-2 draw:
- India will need Sri Lanka to win 2-0 against Australia.
- Additionally, Pakistan must lose at least one match in their series against South Africa.
India’s hopes rest on multiple external results aligning in their favor.

Scenario 4: Australia Wins Both Against Sri Lanka

If Australia wins both matches against Sri Lanka and the India-Australia series ends 2-2:
- India can still qualify if Pakistan beats South Africa 2-0 in their series.
- This outcome requires a perfect storm of favorable results from other teams.