One look at this week’s top ten defenses and you can tell that we’re getting into the weird part of the schedule where teams are banged up, motivations are starting to wane, and it becomes even harder to predict what we’ll see on the field. We had the Cowboys, Dolphins, Titans, and Patriots all inside the top 10 despite being bottom-third defenses all year long.
That led to a disappointing 4-6 week for me in predicting the top 10 defense, only hitting on Houston, Denver, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. We’ll try to right the ship in Week 13 with a lot of interesting games where defenses that have not shown the consistency we’d like, find themselves in really good spots.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 12: 4-6
SEASON-LONG: 65-55 (54.2%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 13?
The Texans are number one this week despite getting horrendous news on Monday with safety Jalen Pitre ruled out for multiple weeks with an injury. Pitre is absolutely a difference-maker in a secondary that doesn’t have a lot of those, so this is certainly an injury to keep an eye on for the Texans moving forward. I’m just not sure it will matter this week against a Jaguars offense that has been atrocious of late. Now Trevor Lawrence did practice on Monday, and there’s a chance he plays on Sunday even though there is nothing for the Jaguars to play for and he’s clearly not 100%. That being said, if Lawrence does play, we’ll likely have to downgrade the Texans a bit but perhaps no farther than Tier 2 since the Texans lead football with 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks.
Yes, this Lions defense is not quite the same without Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko in the lineup, but it’s still a good unit. Over the last six weeks, they rank third in opponent’s scoring rate, sixth in turnover rate, and 14th in explosive play rate allowed. They also rank just 17th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity rate, so that has taken a dip with Hutchinson out. That’s a shame since Caleb Williams continues to take bad sacks for the Bears, and this Bears offense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last four weeks. With new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling plays, they have been incredibly reliant on screens and quick passes, and I’m just not sure that will play as well against this Lions defense as it did against the Vikings last week.
The Broncos are another solid fantasy defense that has averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. It’s not setting the world on fire, but they rank fourth in pass rush productivity rate, 11th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 12th in turnover rate, so they’re firmly inside the top 10 against a Browns offense that gives up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. We saw Jameis Winston deliver in the snow on Thursday, and we know that he’s capable of some big plays, but we also know that he’ll take bad sacks and turn the ball over, so the Broncos are firmly in play this week; however, I do want to keep an eye on the injury to cornerback Riley Moss, who left Week 12 with a knee injury.
The Commanders really let us down against the Cowboys, so I know it’s hard to go back to them this week, but Will Levis was sacked eight times by the Texans last week, and the Texans finished as the top scoring defense in fantasy, so we have to let the Commanders back into our hearts. Over the last six weeks, the Commanders rank fifth in opponent’s scoring rate and 13th in turnover rate and are averaging 6.5 fantasy points per game. They are also going up against a Titans offense that has allowed 9.8 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, which is fourth-worst in football. This feels like a week where the Commanders can get into double digits.
Is this the week we get a Bills defense at full strength? Star linebacker Matt Milano began practicing before the bye week, so there’s a real chance that he will return for Week 13. That’s huge news for a defense that has already been averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks but has struggled over the middle of the field. Over that span, Buffalo is 1st in the NFL in turnover rate and 8th in opponent’s scoring rate but 27th in pass rush productivity rate, which needs to improve. This ranking right now for Buffalo is assuming that Brock Purdy will play since the 49ers are 5-6 and desperately need to win this game. However, Purdy is not at 100% and it’s possible that neither will be left tackle Trent Williams, who also missed Week 12.
This Cowboys and Giants game is gross. It’s two teams that look incompetent most of the time playing on short rest with backup quarterbacks. Ideally, we’d hammer the defenses playing both of these teams, but both of these defenses have also been prone to major letdowns this season, so it’s hard to feel great starting either one. I lean towards the Cowboys with Micah Parsons and Daron Bland back, but I’d rather play one of the defenses in the top 10 which I feel strongly about as a good defensive unit than rely on this beat-up Cowboys team to deliver.
The Vikings’ defense remains a good unit, averaging nine fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, and this Cardinals offense has seemed to hit a wall of late, allowing an average of 9.0 points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. That’s eighth-most in the NFL. Part of that is that they’ve allowed nine sacks and turned the ball over three times in their last three games. I will say that many of those sacks happened last week against the Seahawks, and this Vikings defense has an average pass rush, so that might not be as much of an issue on Sunday, but the Vikings at least feel like a safe floor play.
The Seahawks have turned things around on defense of late, which isn’t a surprise since they hired Mike McDonald in the off-season. Over the last six weeks, they rank fourth in opponent’s scoring rate, seventh in turnover rate, and 10th in forced incompletion rate. That has helped them average 9.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, while the Jets are allowing fantasy defenses to score 6.3 points per game over the last month, which is smack dab in the middle of the league at 17th. The Jets seem to be perpetually embroiled in chaos with Aaron Rodgers on this roster, and so my money is on the Seahawks keeping their recent string of success going in Week 13.
I had the Cardinals just outside of the top 10 last week and felt like that was a nice hat tip to their recent performance but apparently, it was not enough recognition. Even though the Cardinals lost the game, their defense has averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Over that span, they rank fourth in explosive play rate allowed, sixth in pass rush productivity rate, and 16th in opponent’s scoring rate. That puts them on the fringe of the top 10, but this Vikings offense has been far more giving over the recent weeks, allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. This is still a good offense, but Sam Darnold has 10 touchdown passes and seven interceptions over his last seven games and will take a couple of bad sacks a game, so that could help get the Cardinals into the top 10.
People may want to rank the Colts higher because the Patriots’ offensive line looked awful against the Dolphins on Sunday, but the Patriots had also allowed just the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses in Drake Maye’s starts before that, so they were an average matchup for over a month. Was that a fluke or was Sunday a fluke? Over the last six weeks, the Colts rank ninth in turnover rate, 12th in pass rush productivity rate, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate, while averaging seven points per game, so they’re a slightly above-average defense in a slightly above-average matchup and I can see using them in most formats.
This Eagles matchup is terrible, but the Eagles are also far and away the best defense in fantasy over the last six weeks when you look at underlying metrics. Technically, their 10.7 fantasy points per game rank second behind the Texans over that span, but the Eagles also rank first in opponent’s scoring rate, second in forced incompletion rate, second in explosive play rate allowed, fourth in turnover rate, and ninth in pass rush productivity rate. They’ve been tremendous in all areas, and so they feel like a defense that deserves to stay in your lineup, even against the Ravens, but I do have some concerns about the season-ending injury to Brandon Graham and the concussion suffered by Darius Slay, which might keep him out this week.
The Chargers defense faded late against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. A game that was 17-16 heading into the fourth quarter quickly turned into a runaway Ravens win and that does highlight some of the inconsistencies with the Chargers’ defense of late. They’re incredibly well-coached and a strong real-life unit, but they also rank 14th in pass rush productivity rate and 25th in turnover rate over the last month. That’s not great for fantasy success. Now that they’re facing some better offenses that can also put points on the board, it has taken some of the ceiling away from this defense, and they averaged just 7.3 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, which is solid but no longer elite.
The Steelers get a tough matchup against a Bengals team that allows the 10th-fewest points to opposing defenses over the last month. We know the Steelers are a good defense, but their 8.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks ranks 10th, which is solid but not enough to blindly start them regardless of opponent. The Steelers also rank third in turnover rate, 10th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 15th in pass rush productivity rate over that same span, so it feels like a defense that’s just inside the top 10 going up against an offense that’s a below-average matchup, and so that puts the Steelers on the fringe of the top 10 for me this week.
The Rams simply got manhandled on the ground against the Eagles on Sunday. Not only did that lead to plenty of points against, but it also meant the Eagles rarely needed to drop back, which neutralized the Rams’ pass rush. Still, over the last six weeks, the Rams are averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game while ranking second in pass rush productivity rate and fourth in turnover rate but 17th in explosive play rate allowed and 23rd in opponent’s scoring rate. My gut says to rank them higher because this Saints offense isn’t going to hit on big pays without healthy wide receivers, but I’ve targeted the Saints for weeks and it’s backfired, so maybe I should learn my lesson.
For the last two weeks, this Chiefs defense has looked entirely mortal. That’s one thing against the Bills but another against the Panthers last week. Over the last six weeks, the Chiefs average just 4.3 fantasy points per game, so while I love this matchup and think they can deliver, I just can’t feel comfortable ranking them higher. They’re a good real-life defense, but they rank 20th in turnover rate and 20th in pass rush productivity rate over the last six weeks. They will likely be facing Desmond Ridder though, so maybe I should just move the Chiefs up a little more, but I can’t see them cracking the top 10 this week since this ranking is already assuming the Raiders are the third worst offense in football with Ridder under center.
The Bucs are going to surprise people by being this low because they just teed off on a bad Giants offense and now get a Panthers offense that we thought was a good matchup. However, did you know that over their last four games, the Panthers have given up the seventh-FEWEST fantasy points to opposing defenses? Bryce Young looked good in a near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday, and this Panthers offense is starting to click a little bit. Meanwhile, over the last six weeks, the Bucs average just 4.6 fantasy points per game, and that’s including their strong effort last week. I feel like the Bucs may be a trap this week, especially since starting safety Jordan Whitehead suffered a likely season-ending injury on Sunday.
The Seahawks give up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season, which makes the Jets an intriguing play in deeper formats, but that situation is a mess right now, so I’d prefer to avoid it. Same with the Packers defense, which looked solid against the 49ers last week, but that was with no Brock Purdy or Trent Williams, so I can’t get behind carrying that over to a tough matchup against the Dolphins.
The Browns’ defense remains solid, but Denver gives up the fourth-fewest points to opposing defenses over the last month. I believe in Bo Nix enough to fade the Browns defense this week.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
