The men’s college basketball season began on Nov. 4 with Kansas as the preseason No. 1 and UConn, Gonzaga, Baylor and North Carolina each in the top 10.
Four months later, all five of those teams have tumbled out of the AP Top 25 and several are in jeopardy of not making the NCAA tournament at all.
That turmoil at the top of the sport is just one example of how chaotic and unpredictable this season has been. A team that starts two projected top-five NBA Draft picks is sub-.500. A team that starts four Division II transfers is 26-3. The favorite to win national player of the year began his college career at Morehead State. There are more SEC schools (8) in the current men’s basketball Top 25 than there were in this past season’s final football poll (7).
In a little over two weeks, Adam Zucker, Clark Kellogg, Jay Wright and Seth Davis will unveil a fresh 68-team bracket and the three-week sprint to determine this year’s national champion will begin anew. As the calendar turns to March, here are 12 biggest questions to be answered between now and Selection Sunday:
1. Who will be No. 1 overall seed?
Auburn has by far the nation’s best résumé. The Tigers (26-2, 14-1) are alone in first place in a historically strong SEC after defeating the likes of Houston, Iowa State, Purdue and Memphis in non-league play. They’re 15-2 in Quadrant 1 games. No one else in the country has more than 10 Quadrant 1 victories.
Two weeks ago, Auburn was the selection committee’s No. 1 overall seed in its early bracket reveal. When asked if he could remember another No. 1 overall seed separating itself from the pack like Auburn has, selection committee chairman Bubba Cunningham admitted he couldn’t.
“They were the unanimous choice,” said Cunningham, the athletic director at North Carolina. “They are clearly our No. 1.”
2. Who are other contenders for top seed line?
The likelihood of an unprecedented SEC sweep of all four No. 1 seeds has faded over the past two weeks. Duke and Houston keep rolling, while Texas A&M has plummeted out of contention and Florida and Alabama have endured unexpected losses as well.
It would take a late-season Duke tailspin to dislodge the Blue Devils from the top seed line. They’re No. 1 or 2 in most predictive metrics, they defeated Auburn, Arizona and Illinois in non-league play and they’ve feasted on a down ACC.
The contenders for the remaining two No. 1 seeds include Houston, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Michigan State. The SEC trio remains in strong position entering March, but the Cougars and Spartans have closed the gap. Houston now has a résumé to match its gaudy quality metrics after recent wins over Arizona, Iowa State and Texas Tech. Michigan State has also added four marquee wins in the past two weeks alone.
3. Can SEC break record for most NCAA tournament bids from one conference?
The SEC won an unprecedented 88.9% of its non-conference games this season, amassed a 32-16 non-league record against the current KenPom top 50 and defeated the likes of Duke, Houston, Iowa State and St. John’s. That’s why the league is poised to surpass the record 11 NCAA tournament bids that the 2011 Big East secured.
Nine SEC teams are already locks to make the field of 68 — Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri. Vanderbilt might be one more win from joining them. That leaves Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Arkansas trying to solidify their spots over the next 16 days.
Many up-to-date bracket projections have Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas narrowly in the field and Georgia among the first teams out. It’s unlikely all four SEC bubble teams secure bids, but it’s also unlikely that fewer than two do either.
4. Which team will be trickiest to seed?
Seeding Gonzaga will be a nightmare for the committee. The Zags (22-8) have the résumé of a bubble team, yet KenPom, the NET and other predictive metrics rank them in the top 10 or just outside it.
The discrepancy is partially a product of how close Gonzaga’s eight losses have been. Three of the eight were in overtime. The other five came by a combined 24 points. All besides two were against NCAA tournament-caliber opponents.
The Zags’ 27-point average margin of victory also makes a difference. Only two of their victories all season have been by fewer than 10 points. They trounced Baylor by 38, clobbered Indiana by 16 and won at San Diego State by 13.
Should the Zags get credit for all that? Ideally, no. Teams should make the NCAA tournament field and be seeded based on their accomplishments. And yet if the committee gives Gonzaga a No. 10 or 11 seed, that doesn’t happen in a vacuum either. Some deserving No. 6 or 7 seed will draw a KenPom top-10 team in the opening round.
5. Who will win national player of the year?
The easy answer is that either Auburn’s Johni Broome or Duke’s Cooper Flagg will win it. They’ve both produced comparable numbers to lift their teams into national title contention.
Despite not turning 18 until this past December, Flagg has put up 19.4 points per game and leads second-ranked Duke in every major statistical category. Broome has averaged 18.8 points and 11.0 rebounds as a fifth-year senior while also leading top-ranked Auburn in assists and blocked shots.
What could give Broome a slight edge is the gauntlet of a schedule that the Tigers have played. Between a loaded non-league schedule and a historically strong SEC, Auburn has played in 16 Quadrant 1 games so far this season and has won 14 of them. Duke has faced an easier road, running over a watered-down ACC that could produce as few as three or four NCAA tournament bids.
6. Who will join Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg as first-team All-Americans?
It’s pretty wide open after those two. Here are my picks, if the season ended today:
First-team All-Americans
G Braden Smith, Purdue
G Kam Jones, Marquette
G John Tonje, Wisconsin
F Cooper Flagg, Duke
C Johni Broome, Auburn
Also worthy of consideration:
G Walter Clayton Jr., Florida
C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
G PJ Haggerty, Memphis
7. Will North Carolina make NCAA tournament?
If the NCAA tournament bracket were unveiled today, North Carolina likely wouldn’t be part of it. The Tar Heels (18-11) are five games out of first place in a down ACC after squandering most of their non-league opportunities for marquee wins.
A 1-10 record in Quadrant 1 games is especially damaging for North Carolina, as is a Quad 3 loss at home against Stanford. Even worse, the beleaguered ACC doesn’t afford the Tar Heels many chances to improve their resume. All they can do is keep stacking wins between now and their regular season finale against rival Duke.
8. What about Indiana?
For a team whose coach already announced under pressure that he’s stepping down at the end of the season, Indiana is in a surprisingly decent position entering the season’s final sprint. The Hoosiers (17-11) have already toppled Michigan State and rival Purdue since Mike Woodson revealed this will be his final season in Bloomington.
Two more opportunities for quality wins are out there for Indiana even before the Big Ten tournament. The Hoosiers play at Oregon next Tuesday and host Ohio State on March 8. They’ll need to win at least one of those and avoid disaster at Washington to keep themselves in contention for a deliciously awkward NCAA bid.
9. Which mid-majors will be potential giant killers in March?
Here are four with Cinderella potential:
UC San Diego (25-4, 15-2 Big West): In its first year of NCAA tournament eligibility since transitioning from Division II, UC San Diego is having a historic season. The Tritons are in the top 50 in most major computer metrics after pulling an upset at Utah State in non-league play and winning all but two Big West games so far.
Drake (26-3, 16-3 MVC): When Drake hired Ben McCollum last spring, he brought along four starters from Northwest Missouri State. Those Division II transfers have fueled one of college basketball’s best stories so far this season as the Bulldogs toppled Vanderbilt, Kansas State and Miami in non-league play and have surged into first place in the Valley.
McNeese (23-6, 17-1 Southland): McNeese endured plenty of backlash for hiring Will Wade on the heels of a cheating scandal, but the Cowboys have so far only reaped rewards. They’re running away with a second straight Southland Conference title and project as a 12 or 13 seed no one will want to draw in March.
Yale (18-6, 11-0 Ivy): For the first time in program history, Yale is off to a 11-0 start in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs showed flashes of what they were capable of in non-league play, beating Akron, leading Minnesota deep into the second half and falling at Purdue by single digits. Now they’re four games clear of second-place Dartmouth in the Ivy League title race.
10. Which projected top-four seed is most likely to get eliminated early?
The most vulnerable team might be last year’s national runner-up. Purdue has dropped four in a row entering Friday night’s matchup with UCLA. The Boilermakers must find a way to protect the rim without a traditional rim protector.
With Zach Edey gone to the NBA and 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen lost to a broken leg, Purdue lacks a center capable of altering shots in the paint or deterring opposing players from attempting them. Opponents are shooting a blistering 56% from inside the 3-point arc against the Boilermakers, 338th nationally per KenPom.
Purdue papered over this issue for awhile with its perimeter defenders staying in front of their man and walling off driving lanes, but the Boilermakers’ cohesiveness and communication has diminished in recent weeks. That has to change for Purdue to make it out of the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend, let alone return to a Final Four.
11. Who will win national coach of the year?
Auburn has been the best team in college basketball despite injuries and off-court drama, including a fight that forced the Tigers’ flight to Houston to be diverted. That makes Bruce Pearl the favorite to be named national coach of the year.
Should Auburn falter, there are other contenders. Jon Scheyer has a freshman-laden Duke team poised to win its second ACC regular-season crown since 2010. Rick Pitino has awakened long-dormant St. John’s and guided the Johnnies to first place in the Big East. Pat Kelsey inherited a dumpster fire at Louisville and has the Cardinals in position to not just make the NCAA tournament but potentially win a game or two.
12. Which coaches could get fired at end of season?
There are already five power-conference coaching vacancies and the calendar hasn’t even hit March yet. Tony Bennett retired at Virginia. So did Jim Larrañaga at Miami. Utah fired Craig Smith. Leonard Hamilton is stepping down at the end of the season at Florida State, as is Mike Woodson at Indiana.
What other high-profile jobs could open? There are a handful of athletic directors facing tough decisions next month.
Could Villanova decide to move on from Jay Wright’s hand-picked successor Kyle Neptune if the Wildcats miss the NCAA tournament for a third straight season? Could UNLV move on from Kevin Kruger with the program stuck in the Mountain West’s muddled middle? Might Texas move on from former interim coach Rodney Terry and swing big if the Longhorns continue to fade down the stretch?
And then there are two coaches who are probably a year away from headlining every preseason hot-seat list. Hubert Davis will face pressure to get North Carolina performing like an elite team next season. And Adrian Autry must convert a strong incoming recruiting class into wins on the court in order to retain the Syracuse job much longer.
