It appears that the Golden State Warriors dynasty is coming to a close. The team has lost 19 of its last 28 games, many of those defeats coming with Stephen Curry in uniform, and now sits under .500. It’s an unthinkable collapse for a championship organization considering that Curry is still a top-10 player in the league by many advanced metrics. As our own Kevin O’Connor outlined this week, it might be time for Curry and the Warriors to part ways just as Paul Pierce and the Celtics did back in 2013, a tough decision that successfully laid down the next championship foundation for Boston.
If Curry were on the trade block, there’s no shortage of teams that, in theory, would be interested in adding the greatest shooter who ever lived. Who wouldn’t? But with this new collective bargaining agreement and the trade restrictions it sewed for many teams in title pursuits, Curry’s contract will likely prove to be too onerous. The 36-year-old is owed $55.8 million this season, $59.6 million in 2025-26 and $62.6 million in 2026-27 — currently the most expensive contract in the sport on an annual basis.
The San Antonio Spurs, however, should consider that a bargain.
Spurs president R.C. Buford and the whole organization should do everything they can to acquire Curry. Skeptics might say it’s too soon for second-year phenom Victor Wembanyama, who is still playing on his rookie-scale contract.
But that’s precisely why you trade for Curry. Wemby’s four-year, rookie-scale contract is a roster-building cheat code. It provides a golden window of opportunity. Past teams recognized the hack in the system and leveraged it into championships. The Spurs should do the same while Wemby is healthy and dominating.
Said one longtime GM: “In this league, you never have as much time as you think you have.”
It’s not too early for Wembanyama and the Spurs. Early is the whole idea.
The Wemby window
Before Jimmy Butler, before LeBron James, there was Shaquille O’Neal. It was the summer of 2004 when Heat team president Pat Riley found out that the Lakers’ three-time champion and MVP center might be available following a startling Finals loss to the Pistons. The Heat had reached the conference finals just once in the 16 years of the franchise and were poised to make a South Beach splash.
What better way to do that than pick from a championship core? Riley struck a deal to pluck the 32-year-old O’Neal, who was just two years removed from winning a Finals MVP. The Heat sent Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and a future first-round pick to Los Angeles. Notably absent from the deal: Dwyane Wade, who had just wrapped up a dazzling rookie season.
“I wanted to go to another contender, and Miami is definitely another contender,” Shaq told the AP at the time of the trade. “We’re just going to grow together.”
Operative word: Grow. No one could be blamed if they saw Shaq’s “contender” characterization of the Heat as a tad premature. Wade was still just 22, and the Heat were coming off a season in which they posted a middling 42-40 record.
Riley didn’t care about the standings. He didn’t care about the $27.7 million that Shaq would be owed in 2004-05, $10 million more than any other player. When Shaq inexplicably became available, the former Lakers coach pounced on the opportunity to bring in the richest contract in the sport, knowing he had Wade waiting in the wings.
It turned out to be a stroke of genius. Two years later, in just the third year of Wade’s career, the Heat won a 2006 championship. It was a 24-year-old Wade, not Shaq, who earned the Finals MVP nod.
Wade’s salary while winning the Finals MVP? A hair over $3 million.
That’s right, the NBA champions were paying their best player, who averaged 34.7 points in the NBA Finals, half of what they were paying role players Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and James Posey.
This is the Wemby window. We can talk about the godfather star-chasing story of Riley trading for Shaq. But there’s a cold-calculated economic lesson here, too. The Heat capitalized on the artificially suppressed salary for a budding superstar, Wade, who was still in the midst of his four-year rookie scale contract.
In the title-winning season, the Heat could absorb Shaq’s salary, still the most lucrative in the sport, because they were paying Wade a fraction of his market value. One could balk at paying Shaq on the downside of his career (the Heat signed Shaq to a 5-year, $100 million extension in the summer of 2005), but that’s a superficial way to think about it. The Heat brass knew the math of the rookie-scale contract and understood they could in time be paying two All-NBA players a combined $23 million in 2005-06, a highway robbery considering other duos in the NBA took up way more of the cap (the Knicks paid Stephon Marbury and Allan Houston a cool $35 million that season).
Like Wade, Wembanyama is tracking to reach an All-NBA team in his second season while making less than the mid-level exception. The Spurs are paying a player who is averaging 24.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.0 blocks just $12.7 million this season, less money than what Brooklyn is paying De’Anthony Melton. In the next two seasons, Wemby will make $13.4 million and $16.9 million, pennies compared to the salaries that his peers will be commanding. Think about it: the Spurs could be paying ‘Max Strus money’ to the 2026-27 MVP.
This is why Curry could be seen as a cap table bargain.
The Curry connection
Economists might look at the Spurs situation and point out that they’re enjoying an economic phenomenon called consumer (or buyer’s) surplus, which is the difference between what a consumer is willing to pay and what they’re actually paying. How much would the Spurs be willing to pay Wembanyama on the open market? $60 million? In a no salary cap world, $100 million? More?
Rather than pocketing the tens of millions of dollars of cap value furnished by CBA minutiae, they should invest it in pairing Wembanyama with a star while they can. The beauty of a hypothetical Curry-Wemby partnership is that Curry’s contract fits lock-in-key with Wembanyama’s rookie-scale timeline, both ending in 2026-27. The initial sticker shock of Curry’s $62.6 million that season would be soothed by Wembanyama’s ridiculously low $16.9 million bill, which will be less than the Bulls’ salary for Patrick Williams that same season.
Put it this way, in the following two seasons, the Spurs could be getting Curry and Wembanyama for about $76 million annually. Compared to the price tags of other star packages, it’s a no-brainer. Over the same span, the Bucks are slated to pay Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard (player option in 2026-27) $112 million annually; the Suns with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal (player option in 2026-27) $110 million annually; the Sixers with Joel Embiid and Paul George $109 million annually. Heck, the Spurs could have Curry and Wemby for roughly the same amount as the Grizzlies will be paying Ja Morant and Desmond Bane ($79 million annually).
On-court, the basketball fit between Wembanyama and Curry is seamless. The greatest shooter of all time paired with someone who projects to be the greatest rim protector of all time. Not only that, Wemby could keep Curry’s legs fresher by shouldering more of an offensive load than anyone on the Warriors can and protecting him on the defensive end. You thought game-planning against Wemby was hard now? Imagine him with the gravitational pull of Curry. A Curry-Wemby partnership would feel like they’re playing 7-on-5.
Not only that, Curry would bring off-court gravity to the Spurs as well. Are players lining up to play next to Devin Vassell and Wemby right now? Maybe not. But if the second star is Curry, other stars may be willing to take a discount to join the most tantalizing duo in the NBA.
As for the trade itself, the Spurs would obviously have to part with long-term assets like any team acquiring a player of Curry’s caliber. Luckily, the Spurs have CBA-friendly contracts that can match Curry’s salary slot. The Spurs trading Stephon Castle (and I love Castle’s game!), Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes would get there cap-wise. To sweeten the deal, the Spurs have four first-round picks from other teams (two unprotected firsts from Atlanta in 2025 and 2027 and one unprotected first from Minnesota in 2031), all of their seven first-round picks going forward and a host of swaps to dangle. Such a trade nets the Warriors a rebuild treasure chest: a top prospect, cap relief, and a menu of unprotected picks from which to choose from. As my guy Brian Windhorst would say, they could be in the Deal Zone quickly.
Golden opportunity
There would be risk in a Curry deal just as there is a risk in any trade. Castle could become a star in Golden State. Curry could break down. But they’d still have Wemby, which limits the downside risk and provides a pivot point. The Mavericks’ swing for Kristaps Porziņģis to pair with Luka Dončić didn’t go as planned, but they retooled and reached the NBA Finals by 2024 because Luka is Luka. And Curry is better than 2020 Porziņģis coming off an ACL tear.
Considering how hard it is in this league to win a championship or even ascend into that inner circle of contenders, the historical hit rate on rookie-scale swings is impressive. In the same summer that Riley took advantage of Wade’s artificially suppressed salary to win a championship, other teams did the same. With Amar’e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson starring on rookie-scale deals, the 29-53 Phoenix Suns signed a 30-year-old Steve Nash and sparked a revolution. With Yao Ming having two years left on his rookie-scale contract, the Rockets brought Tracy McGrady to Houston in time to make a run before Yao’s feet gave way.
Maximizing the next two-plus years will be key for the Spurs and acquiring a second star of Curry’s ilk could help the Spurs negotiate a co-star’s next contract downward. On this trajectory, Wembanyama’s projected contract could soar from $16.9 million in 2026-27 to as high as $56 million in 2027-28, depending on how the revenues shake out. The time to strike is now.
Considering how hard it is in this league to win a championship or even ascend into that inner circle of contenders, the historical hit rate on rookie-scale swings is impressive. In the same summer that Riley took advantage of Wade’s artificially suppressed salary to win a championship, other teams did the same. With Amar’e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson starring on rookie-scale deals, the 29-53 Phoenix Suns signed a 30-year-old Steve Nash and sparked a revolution. With Yao Ming having two years left on his rookie-scale contract, the Rockets brought Tracy McGrady to Houston in time to make a run before Yao’s feet gave way.
There are other examples of teams taking advantage of the rookie-scale window on its budding superstars. Don’t forget the fact that Kyrie Irving was still on his rookie-scale contract in 2014-15, which allowed Cleveland more cap flexibility to acquire LeBron James and Kevin Love (via trade with Minnesota). The Spurs won the 1997 lottery with Duncan to get the No. 1 overall pick and pair him with Robinson, but they also hit the jackpot financially; when they won the title, the Spurs were paying Duncan $3.4 million, less than Will Perdue’s salary, allowing the team to keep its veteran core intact.
The rookie-scale contract usually isn’t such a loophole and it typically pays out a salary commensurate with a young NBA player’s abilities. But when a generational talent comes along like Wembanyama, teams should be more than willing to use it as a cap hack, an otherwise impossible avenue to pay an MVP candidate at a price less than even the average contract. If it isn’t Curry, the Spurs should go big-game hunting sooner than later and take advantage of the CBA quirk.
Some might say the Wemby title window shouldn’t open until he hits his prime a half-decade from now, but the four-year, rookie-scale contract should convince the Spurs to say Night, Night to that notion and get Stephen Curry.
