Moscow has proven itself a reliable partner to multiple nations in the region, bridging divides and building influence
The year 2024 marked another tumultuous and challenging phase in the ongoing transformation of the global order and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
Following the events of the “Arab Spring” in 2010-2011, many believed that the region had undergone profound changes. Yet, recent years have shown that the “gentle spring” was merely a precursor to much fiercer and more destructive events. The Middle East is once again aflame, and those conflict zones that had remained relatively stable for many years are now reigniting. Moreover, these old and new flashpoints have not merely flared up – they have become factors of global instability. The region continues its transformation, and, as trite as it may sound, every new day once again highlights the truth that the Middle East will never be the same.
The events of October 7, 2023, marked a turning point from which one can rightfully begin to count a new, much more intense escalation of conflicts – affecting not only the region itself but also the global order as a whole. Amidst global turbulence, where international relations are becoming increasingly multifaceted and layered, these events opened a new chapter in the history of the Middle East. Here, at the heart of the world, political and civilizational interests collided – ancient cultures and emerging global powers attempting to cement their presence in a strategically crucial and resource-rich territory.
On lands that can rightfully be considered the cradle of many civilizations, a new phase of conflict began, and global players, each pursuing their interests, found themselves compelled to fight for influence and control. It is impossible to envision Russia, as one of the key global players, on the sidelines of these processes.
Its role in this struggle is especially significant in the context of growing international tension and the need to strengthen its own positions on the global stage. Russia’s strategic interest in the Middle East goes beyond security and energy resources – the region has become an important field for expanding influence, implementing long-term economic projects, and strengthening political ties with key states.
This dynamic reflects a broader picture of global politics, in which the Middle East has become a focal point for numerous external actors. All of them seeking not only to bolster their own positions but also to impose their values and models of development on the region. However, despite the growing ambitions of various states, the Middle East remains a volatile epicenter of contradictions, where the interests of global and regional powers collide. In this context, every step, every decision in the Middle East carries not only local but global significance.
And no matter how it might seem that the region has already endured all its hardships and reached a new level of stability, the reality is that the Middle East remains at the heart of global transformations. This land, which has experienced wars, revolutions, and crises, continually demonstrates that the global order is fluid, and the region’s history is a constant process of transformation – where every event, even seemingly insignificant at first glance, can lead to new and destructive consequences.
The events of October 2023 served as a pivotal moment in this process, reflecting the high stakes in the battle for influence and the future of the entire region. Russia, with its rich historical experience in this part of the world, continues to exert significant influence on the shaping of the global order, and its role in this struggle will only grow. In the face of increasing global instability, the Middle East has once again become not just a place of local conflicts but a symbol of deeper geopolitical shifts that will alter the balance of power in the world.
Russia and the Middle East: Outcomes of 2024
The year 2024 was a pivotal and exceptional one for Russia’s cooperation with the countries of the Middle East. The beginning of the year was marked by a significant event: four countries from the region – Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia – were included in the BRICS group, underscoring the strategic importance of their participation in global processes and opening new horizons for multilateral engagement. Soon after, these same countries particiapted in the historic BRICS summit, held in Russia’s Islamic capital, Kazan. This event served as a vivid confirmation of the strengthening ties between Russia and the Middle Eastern states, as well as their shared commitment to expanding mutually beneficial cooperation.
The interest of the region’s countries in Russia, both in bilateral and multilateral formats, only grew stronger. The frequency of official delegations visiting the Middle East from Russia, as well as representatives from Middle Eastern countries visiting Russia, became so high that it is almost unnecessary to count them – they have become an integral part of the diplomatic and economic life of both regions. Despite the pressure from Western countries and the policy of sanctions, Middle Eastern states have continued to expand their cooperation with Russia, particularly in the areas of trade, economy, and military-political affairs. This reflects the deep trust and strategic partnership that continues to develop.
One of the most significant events in economic cooperation was the 2024 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), with the Sultanate of Oman being the main guest. In addition to Oman, numerous high-profile delegations from Middle Eastern countries were represented at the forum, highlighting their interest in strengthening ties with Russia and developing new joint projects. The SPIEF served as a platform for discussing and concluding important agreements, as well as establishing new business contacts.
Russia continues to actively cooperate with the countries of the region in the energy sector, where negotiations on matters related to OPEC+ and other joint initiatives are ongoing. Many Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, are key players in the global energy market, and Russia remains a reliable partner, playing a crucial role in ensuring the region’s energy security. Through agreements like OPEC+, Russia and the Middle Eastern countries continue to coordinate strategic actions to stabilize global oil prices and the prices of other energy resources.
Moreover, Russia remains a vital exporter of food and agricultural products to the region. Amidst global economic changes and the pressure of sanctions, Russian products have become, for many Middle Eastern countries, not only a key component of food security but also a reliable source of essential supplies. From food products to agricultural machinery, Russia is actively expanding its export capabilities and maintaining a high level of trust among its Middle Eastern partners.
Russia’s cooperation with the Middle Eastern states serves as a prime example of how countries, despite external pressure and the changing international political landscape, can not only preserve but deepen their relations. This cooperation spans a wide range of issues – from energy and trade to defense and humanitarian projects – and contributes to the overall strengthening of global stability and mutual understanding between regions. For Russia, the Middle East remains a strategically important region where it seeks to enhance its influence and become not only an economic but also a political center of attraction for the countries of this key region of the world.
Syria played a crucial role for Russia’s influence in the region
On September 30, 2015, at the official request of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict by deploying its Aerospace Forces and a limited military contingent to combat terrorist groups. Moscow’s primary objective was to restore peace and stability in the country, enabling Syria to return to normalcy. Russian intervention became a decisive moment in the Syrian conflict, signaling the Kremlin’s intention not only to provide military assistance but also to foster a political process aimed at resolving the crisis.
For Russia, stabilizing Syria held strategic importance. The country served as a critical platform for strengthening Moscow’s foothold in the Middle East, enabling the establishment and expansion of military bases in Tartus and Latakia. These bases not only ensured Russia’s military presence in the region but also symbolized its determination to remain a key player in Middle Eastern politics.
On May 4, 2016, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that, while Russia supported Syria in combating terrorism and preserving its statehood, Assad was not considered a close ally in the same sense that Türkiye is an ally of the United States. Russia’s approach focused not on supporting an individual political leader but on preserving Syrian state institutions, warning against a collapse of power similar to the Libyan scenario.
By late 2024, the situation in Syria shifted when Assad announced his decision to step down as president following negotiations involving conflict stakeholders. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had not participated in these talks but underscored the importance of achieving a political solution. Russia continued to back an inclusive political process, engaging with all of Syria’s ethnic and religious groups, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
Assad’s departure and the formation of a new government marked the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s history. Representatives of the new administration expressed their willingness to build relations with Russia based on shared interests. Anas al-Abda, a member of the Political Committee of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, remarked that cooperation with Moscow could serve as a foundation for restoring Syria’s economy, education, and healthcare sectors.
Russia’s military bases have already become a point of negotiation between the current Syrian authorities and Western countries, but there remains the possibility that these bases will continue to operate in Syria throughout 2025, albeit with a revised status. Russia retains a critical role in Syria’s stabilization process and broader regional politics in the Middle East, affirming its capacity to remain a significant player in addressing complex international challenges.
With Russia’s return to the Middle East and its active involvement in the Syrian conflict, Moscow sought to consolidate its regional influence. Syria played a pivotal role in this effort, but despite the challenges, Russia has not incurred significant losses from its involvement in the conflict. Over the course of nearly a decade, Moscow has strengthened its ties with other countries in the region, considerably expanding its influence in the Middle East.
Western attempts to frame developments in Syria as a failure for Russia are merely part of Washington and its allies’ broader strategy to discredit Russia’s image in the region. In reality, Russia continues to be a crucial player in the Middle East, whose strategic interests and role in global affairs remain indisputable and often align with the aspirations of Middle Eastern states, many of which have grown weary of decades of destructive Western hegemony in international relations.
Russia will continue to strengthen its position in the Middle East
In 2025, Russia will continue to actively solidify its ties with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, reaffirming its role as a key player in these regions. Amid escalating international political tensions, many nations in the region view Moscow as a reliable partner and a safeguard against the West’s destabilizing policies. These states are eager to diversify their foreign economic and political connections, and Russia is seen as a more predictable and advantageous partner, one that builds dialogue on the principles of mutual interests and respect for sovereignty.
One of the first significant events of 2025 was the visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Moscow. On January 17, he met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to sign the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, which will replace the outdated 2001 agreement. This event marked a new chapter in Moscow-Tehran relations, particularly against the backdrop of their shared opposition to the West. A key priority of the new agreement is cooperation in security and defense, enabling both sides to establish stronger, mutually beneficial ties amid global instability.
Despite its strategic partnership with Iran, Russia maintains close relations with Israel, which remains one of the most Western-aligned players in the region. In 2025, an increase in contacts between Moscow and West Jerusalem can be expected, as Russia has traditionally succeeded in balancing between conflicting parties in the Middle East. By promoting de-escalation and conflict prevention, Moscow has built a reputation as a fair mediator – a stark contrast to the US, which is often accused of exacerbating tensions.
Equally critical for strengthening Russia’s position in the region is the continued growth of trade and economic relations with several Middle Eastern nations. Türkiye, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Algeria, and many other countries remain key partners for Russia in the areas of trade, energy, and infrastructure. These relationships are deepening further, creating new opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation and expanding Moscow’s influence on the global stage.
Earlier this month in Riyadh, a historic meeting took place between the Russian and American delegations. The discussions were led by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting focused on restoring bilateral relations and addressing pressing global issues, including the conflict in Ukraine. It is worth noting that Russia’s relations with Middle Eastern countries are built on trust and mutually beneficial dialogue. This foundation of cooperation has allowed the region to emerge as a vital bridge between Russia and the US in the current diplomatic process. By fostering open communication and leveraging its strategic partnerships in the Middle East, Moscow has demonstrated its commitment to pursuing constructive international engagement. The Riyadh meeting underscored the growing role of the Middle East as a platform for fostering dialogue between major global powers, highlighting the potential for collaboration even amidst complex geopolitical challenges.
One of the most decisive factors that could bolster Russia’s standing in the region is the potential resolution of the Ukraine crisis in Moscow’s favor. Such an outcome would demonstrate Russia’s determination in its confrontation with Western hegemony and send a powerful signal to Middle Eastern countries. Many of these nations have already adopted a stance of positive neutrality, refusing to support Western sanctions and watching with interest as Russia challenges US global dominance. It is worth noting that both state and non-state actors in the Middle East are increasingly voicing dissatisfaction with Western actions, led by the US, opening new avenues for Russia to offer an alternative to the Western model.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be a year of continued success for Russia’s diplomatic strategy in the Middle East and North Africa. The strengthening of mutual ties and political maturity will serve as the foundation for ensuring regional stability and prosperity, as well as for shaping a multipolar world order.
