Oscars 2026: First Blind Predictions Including Timothée Chalamet, Emma Stone, ‘Wicked: For Good’ and More

With the feather in the cap of this past Oscar season, it’s time to look ahead to the next.

This annual Variety tradition of blindly forecasting awards season is meant to be fun and expectation-free. Last year’s edition correctly predicted three of the 10 best picture nominees — “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two” and “Nickel Boys” — but the actual winner, “Anora,” wasn’t even on our radar. That unpredictability is part of the joy of this type of piece.

Speaking of joy, by the sheer looks of the theatrical road ahead, one thing I see is: Movies are back, baby!

The upcoming film slate looks packed as Hollywood emerges from pandemic-era production disruptions. Major studios, streamers and indie powerhouses are rolling out prestige dramas, daring auteur projects and a few big-budget crowd-pleasers — all with the potential to excite the global film-loving community.

Sight unseen, Focus Features appears to have the most stacked lineup of prestige films.

The specialty label has lured three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis out of retirement for “Anemone,” a family drama directed by his son, Ronan Day-Lewis, which the pair co-wrote. This marks the elder Day-Lewis’ first role since 2017’s “Phantom Thread,” making “Anemone” an instant top prospect.

Also on Focus’ slate: Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia,” another offbeat reunion of the “Poor Things” filmmaker with his two-time Oscar-winning muse Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons. Meanwhile, “Nomadland” Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao returns with “Hamnet,” an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. With such talent across the board, Focus could be vying for multiple best picture slots.

With a diverse slate of prestige projects, Netflix will undoubtedly mount an ambitious push.

Fresh off his Oscar win for the animated “Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro is back in live-action with his version of “Frankenstein.” This long-gestating passion project stars Oscar Isaac as Dr. Victor Frankenstein and Jacob Elordi as his iconic monster. Del Toro’s gothic take is expected to blend his signature visual style with serious acting firepower.

Meanwhile, Edward Berger (coming off his second consecutive best picture nom with “Conclave”) teams up with Colin Farrell for “The Ballad of a Small Player,” a thriller set in Macau that signals international scope and star wattage.

Noah Baumbach is shifting gears with “Jay Kelly,” a “heartbreaking comedy” starring George Clooney and Adam Sandler. And in a major comeback, Oscar-winning director Kathryn Bigelow returns with an untitled White House thriller led by an ensemble that includes Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson. It marks Bigelow’s first film since “Detroit” (2017).

Indie powerhouse A24 remains a festival darling with several high-profile projects, including two solo projects from the Safdie Brothers.

Josh Safdie directs “Marty Supreme,” a kinetic sports drama about table tennis legend Marty Reisman, starring “A Complete Unknown” best actor nominee Timothée Chalamet. Meanwhile, Benny Safdie helms “The Smashing Machine,” a gritty biopic of MMA fighter Mark Kerr starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Emily Blunt. The film, described by one insider as “extraordinary,” marks an intriguing fusion of indie sensibility and mainstream muscle.

Elsewhere, “Past Lives” director Celine Song returns with “Materialists,” a modern romantic comedy starring Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal that blends satire with classic romance.

Warner Bros. will be putting its weight behind several major contenders.

Among them is Maggie Gyllenhaal’s sophomore directorial effort “The Bride!,” which reimagines the “Bride of Frankenstein” story with a feminist twist. Jessie Buckley stars as the resurrected Bride, with Christian Bale as a Frankenstein’s monster, set in 1930s Chicago. With an ensemble that includes Penélope Cruz and Annette Bening, the film is pitched as a “deeply romantic, punk monster movie.”

Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s long-secretive project is finally taking shape. Though still untitled, the film boasts a reported $115 million budget. The star-studded cast includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor. Early test screenings reportedly clock in at nearly three hours — with eight noms on PTA’s resume, this makes for an instant Oscar conversation starter.

Under the Disney umbrella, 20th Century Studios is touting an eclectic mix of hopefuls.

Scott Cooper’s “Deliver Me from Nowhere” chronicles the making of Bruce Springsteen’s landmark 1982 album “Nebraska,” with “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White portraying a young Springsteen. With Springsteen’s blessing and Cooper’s proven touch with music dramas (“Crazy Heart”), this could be a player in the acting and sound categories.

On the blockbuster side, James Cameron returns with “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in his sci-fi epic. Given Cameron’s track record, technical Oscars are a given; if the film matches the emotional heft of its predecessors, a best picture nomination isn’t out of the question.

Searchlight Pictures has three mystery movies on the horizon.

Andrew Stanton, best known for Pixar classics like “Wall-E,” makes his second live-action film with “In the Blink of an Eye,” a philosophical sci-fi story starring Kate McKinnon and Rashida Jones.

In “Is This Thing On?” Bradley Cooper directs and co-stars in a seriocomic look at a marriage’s end. The feature stars Will Arnett, who co-wrote the screenplay with Mark Chappell. The expectations are high, given Cooper’s recent run with “Maestro” and “A Star Is Born,” in addition to a genre shift.

Rounding out Searchlight’s lineup is “Rental Family,” a Tokyo-set dramedy starring Brendan Fraser as an American actor who joins a “rent-a-family” service. After his comeback Oscar win for “The Whale,” all eyes are on Fraser’s next leading move.

Universal will balance prestige with massive commercial appeal.

Chief among its contenders is “Wicked: For Good,” the second half of the two-part “Wicked” adaptation, coming off a massive 10 Oscar noms for the first installment. With two original songs by composer Stephen Schwartz, each with a climactic payoff for Cynthia Erivo’s Elphaba and Ariana Grande’s Glinda, it could be a back-to-back major player, especially in the techs and a potential redemption nod for the snubbed director Jon M. Chu.

Meanwhile, “How to Train Your Dragon” gets the live-action treatment, and the “Jurassic Park” saga continues with “Jurassic World: Rebirth,” with stars Scarlett Johansson and Jonathan Bailey.

Lionsgate is entering the fray with “Michael,” an estate-approved Michael Jackson biopic from Antoine Fuqua starring the pop icon’s nephew, Jaafar Jackson. With Colman Domingo and Nia Long playing the pop star’s parents, the film is expected to be a lightning rod of conversation.

Elsewhere, Kenneth Branagh pivots from “Belfast” and Agatha Christie to contemporary suspense with “The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde,” starring Jodie Comer. Moreover, “The Long Walk,” based on Stephen King’s dystopian novel and starring Cooper Hoffman, could be a brutal endurance tale that could surprise some movie-goers.

Let’s not forget that a new category is coming for the Oscars this year. The achievement in casting is sure to be enjoyable and unknown ground to cover, and with some of the biggest names in Hollywood attached to some of this year’s hopefuls, such as Ellen Lewis (Mubi’s “Father, Mother, Sister, Brother”), Avy Kaufman (“Sentimental Value”), and more, expect this to become a prime focus during the season.

From auteur-driven dramas to blockbuster spectacles, the 2025 roster could have the makings of an exhilarating awards season.

All release dates, studios, and official credits are not final and subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical or

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