Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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WICKED, Ariana Grande (front), 2024. © Universal Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection
©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection
SAG Awards Commentary (Updated Nov. 26, 2024): It’s the week of Thanksgiving when the first batch of screeners gets watched by voters over the holiday weekend. So, where does it all stand?
Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” has dominated the headlines, while industry screenings and Q&As have been underway over the past week. Sony Pictures held a SAG NomCom screening with the cast of “Saturday Night” on Monday evening, and the sizeable, sprawling ensemble was the highlight. The highlight was bolstered by a passionate speech from cast member Robert Wuhl, who spoke about the importance of awards to an actor’s livelihood, generating roaring applause from the crowd. Those are the types of moments that can lead to recognition.
The same can be said for Netflix’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” which received a standing ovation for its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, at a SAG Q&A that I moderated. If the awards campaign stays the course, she could be on her way to making history.
The pre-Thanksgiving updates are below. The individual category pages won’t be updated until the weekend, but you can find the overall thoughts in this week’s Awards Circuit column.
On Monday, the Gotham Awards will have the first official say on the year in movies before the New York Film Critics Circle weighs in on Tuesday, followed by the National Board of Review on Wednesday. My official projections for each group are below. Remember, none of these groups are the end-point for an awards contender (“The Lord of the Rings” films were all absent from NBR’s top 10 lists). It’s nearly impossible to gauge where anyone’s tastes will go. And yet, we predict anyway. Happy Thanksgiving.
Gotham Awards Predictions (Dec. 2)
Best Feature: “Anora”
Lead Performance: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Supporting Performance: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
International Feature: “All We Imagine as Light”
Documentary Feature: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Screenplay: “His Three Daughters”
Breakthrough Director: Alessandra Lacorazza, “In the Summers”
Breakthrough Performer: Ryan Destiny, “The Fire Inside”
New York Film Critics Circle Predictions (Dec. 3)
Best Film: “The Brutalist”
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Screenplay: “Anora”
Animated Film: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Nosferatu”
Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
International Film: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
First Film: Annie Baker, “Janet Planet”
National Board of Review (Dec. 4)
Best Film: “Conclave”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Actor: Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Actress: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Supporting Actor: Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Room Next Door”
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Breakthrough Performance: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Directorial Debut: Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
International Film: “I’m Still Here”
Documentary: “Sugarcane”
Ensemble: “Saturday Night”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Stunt Artistry: “The Fall Guy”
NBR Top 10 Films
“Challengers”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Inside Out 2”
“A Real Pain”
“Saturday Night”
“September 5”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Top 10 Independent Films
“Anora”
“Between the Temples”
“The Brutalist”
“A Different Man”
“Ghostlight”
“Girls Will Be Girls”
“In the Summers”
“Janet Planet”
“Nickel Boys”
“The People’s Joker”
Top 5 International Films
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Armand”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Vermiglio”
Top 5 Documentaries
“Black Box Diaries”
“Daughters”
“Power”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
“Will & Harper”
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Dominic Leon
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Director
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Col Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actor
Image Credit: A24 Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actress
Image Credit: Netflix Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison ***
“Anora” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor
Image Credit: A24 Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival “Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Focus Features “Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana FoxOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: ©IFC Films/Courtesy Everett Collection “Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Production Design
Image Credit: Apple TV “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Netflix “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Neon “Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Mubi
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Sound
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Score
Image Credit: Everett Collection “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Song
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Berlin Film Festival “Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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International Feature
Image Credit: CredIt: Alile Dara Onawale/ Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival “Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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More Information (All Categories)
Image Credit: Getty 2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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